In Barakata village on the outskirts of Ranchi, Shiv Kumar watched his one-acre chilli crop worth Rs 25,000 flattened within minutes as a sudden hailstorm struck in March. Weeks later, as he prepares to plant cucumber, he remains unsure if the weather will spare his next crop. “Nothing can be predicted now,” he said.In nearby Lapung, farmer Binod Sahu is staring at a deeper crisis. Along with around 40 others, he had cultivated watermelon across nearly 60-70 acres. Untimely hailstorms destroyed the entire harvest. With a Rs 4 lakh bank loan to repay, he fears slipping into debt. “We took a risk, but the weather defeated us,” he said.Across Jharkhand, such losses are no longer isolated. Climate change is reshaping not just agriculture but everyday life — through rising heat, unpredictable summer and erratic rainfall patterns.For generations, farmers have relied on a seasonal rhythm they could read. Summers were harsh but steady, followed by a monsoon that arrived broadly on time. That rhythm is now breaking down.Summers have grown more unpredictable and intense. Temperatures surge sharply, often followed by sudden clouding, thunderstorm or hail. Long stretches of scorching afternoons are abruptly interrupted by gusty winds and rain, unsettling both crops and human activity.Meteorological data reflects this shift. Ranchi’s average maximum temperature has been rising at about 0.33°C per decade, with a clear upward trend since 1970. Scientists attributed the changes not only to global warming but also to local factors such as urbanisation, shrinking green cover and the urban heat island effect.Jharkhand, experts said, is now facing a more complex form of climate stress where long-term warming is unfolding alongside unstable and unpredictable weather events.“The year 2024 was the warmest in India since 1901, clearly showing the long-term signal,” said vice-chancellor of Birsa Agricultural University, S C Dubey.Yet, the same year also revealed a local contradiction. Even during this period, parts of March and May saw relatively cooler spells due to rain, thunderstorm, hail, gusty winds and cloud cover temporarily suppressing daytime temperatures. Dubey said this reflects a deeper shift: climate change is no longer just about a steady rise in temperature, but about increasing atmospheric instability and sudden weather swings.The instability has become more pronounced since 2024. Between March 17 and 20, Jharkhand experienced rainfall, thunderstorm, lightning, hail and strong winds that damaged horticulture and standing crops. Similar conditions persisted into May — a crucial time for farmers — when widespread rain and gusty winds disrupted sowing plans. Cyclone Remal later added to the volatility.For farmers, this means constant disruption. A week that appears ideal for land preparation can be lost to repeated inclement weather. Crops nearing harvest are damaged by unseasonal rain. Vegetable growers face rising pest and disease incidence due to repeated wet spells.Erratic rainfall adds to the stress. During the pre-monsoon period in 2025, Jharkhand recorded 168.9 mm of rainfall against a normal of 83.3 mm — an excess of 103%. There were 59 days of rain, 44 days of thunderstorm and 14 hail days. While this may seem beneficial, experts emphasised that timing, intensity and distribution matter far more than total rainfall.Monsoon last year deepened the concern. The state received 1,198.8 mm of rainfall — 17% above normal — but this included 68 days of heavy to extremely heavy rain and 93 thunderstorm days. Such intense spells lead to runoff, soil erosion, waterlogging and nutrient loss, often reducing farm productivity despite higher rainfall.This volatility is especially damaging to the rain-fed economy, where 80-82% of annual rainfall is received during monsoon. With only 6-10% of irrigation coverage and nearly 40% of land under monocropping, agriculture remains heavily dependent on a single season.Geography further compounds the risk. Upland areas with shallow soil dry out quickly during heatwaves and cannot retain moisture when rains are delayed. When rainfall comes in intense bursts, it often washes away the topsoil. In lowlands, excess water leads to waterlogging, root damage and disease.Weather swings are becoming sharper. Early 2026 saw a severe deficit, with Jan and Feb receiving just 1.5 mm of rain against a normal of 25.4 mm. This reduced soil moisture for rabi crops. But March again turned erratic, bringing rain for 17 days, multiple hailstorms and winds reaching 68 kmph.This back and forth — from heat stress and dryness to sudden intense rainfall — is making traditional farming calendars increasingly unreliable.Thunderstorms and lightning have risen sharply, hailstorms have increased, and rainfall days have nearly doubled in recent years. Experts also pointed to a growing influence of western disturbances, which are now affecting the state more than before.For farmers, the consequences are severe. Crop failure means re-sowing costs. Uncertain yields make loan repayment difficult. Planning — once guided by experience — is now a gamble.Rising heat also affects daily wagers, reduces working hours and increases health risks. Erratic weather disrupts rural markets, food supply and incomes.Scientists attributed the changes to human-induced climate change driven by rising greenhouse gas emissions, compounded by local environmental changes such as deforestation and rapid urban expansion.For farmers like Shiv and Binod, however, science is secondary. What matters is the growing uncertainty.
