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With leads stabilising across states, the NDA is pushing in Bengal and holding Assam and Puducherry, while Tamil Nadu sees a disrupted contest and Kerala tilts back to the UDF.
From the BJP’s strong lead over Mamata Banerjee’s TMC in West Bengal to the Vijay wave challenging both DMK and AIADMK formations in Tamil Nadu, the trends so far point to major political churn.
As counting continues across states, the 2026 Assembly elections are producing winners and losers in equal measure. From the BJP’s strong lead over Mamata Banerjee’s TMC in West Bengal to the Vijay wave challenging both DMK and AIADMK formations in Tamil Nadu, the trends so far point to major political churn.
The NDA is leading in West Bengal while holding Assam and Puducherry. Tamil Nadu is seeing a fractured mandate with TVK ahead, and Kerala is swinging towards the Congress-led UDF after keeping it out of power for 10 years.
Here’s a detailed look at the biggest winners and losers emerging so far:
The Winners
Bharatiya Janata Party
The BJP is emerging as one of the biggest gainers of this election cycle. After a brief setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, when it failed to reach a majority on its own, the party appears to be returning to form.
In West Bengal, it is leading over the Trinamool Congress, signalling a major breakthrough in a state where it has long tried to carve out political space. The result would also carry ideological significance for the BJP in a state that has historically seen strong Left influence.
In Assam, the BJP has gained further ground and, along with its allies, is heading towards a strong mandate, leaving the Gaurav Gogoi-led Congress far behind. In Puducherry too, the NDA is on course to retain power.
Taken together, these trends suggest the NDA’s footprint could expand further across states and Union Territories, with the BJP continuing to head the government in a majority of them.
Vijay: ‘Jana Nayagan’ Moment In Tamil Nadu
“Jana Nayagan” Vijay has emerged as the undisputed star of this election. In his debut outing, his party Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has delivered one of the most striking performances, leading the race and giving both DMK and AIADMK-led formations a tough fight.
The actor-turned-politician appears to have successfully converted his star power into electoral support, tapping into a pattern where voters in the state have backed film personalities entering politics.
Indian National Congress In Kerala: Strong Comeback After 10 Years
While the Congress has not made a significant impact in other states, it has delivered a strong performance in Kerala. The UDF is firmly ahead, with the Congress leading from the front.
This puts the party on course for a return to power after a decade in opposition. It also strengthens its foothold in the south, where it already governs Telangana and Karnataka, as it seeks to hold ground against the BJP south of the Vindhyas.
Narendra Modi–Amit Shah: Campaign From The Front Pays Off
The BJP’s campaign in West Bengal was led from the front by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. In the absence of a strong local face, both leaders drove the campaign aggressively.
The trends indicate that their messaging and outreach helped convert anti-incumbency sentiment into electoral gains.
Himanta Biswa Sarma: Drives BJP’s Strong Showing In Assam
Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma led the BJP’s campaign with a clear focus on issues such as infiltration, which has remained a key political theme in the state.
Despite controversy around some of his statements, Sarma appears to have consolidated the BJP’s core support base, helping the party head towards another strong mandate.
N Rangaswamy: Retains Edge In Puducherry
The AINRC, led by Chief Minister N Rangaswamy, is leading in Puducherry in alliance with the BJP.
The alliance appears to have weathered anti-incumbency and is heading towards retaining its mandate.
The Losers
Mamata Banerjee: Faces Setback In Only Stronghold
Mamata Banerjee is facing a major setback, with the TMC trailing in West Bengal, the party’s only state.
If the trend holds, it would push her into the opposition benches in the state and raise fresh questions about her political relevance at the national level. At the same time, her strong grassroots connect means she cannot be written off entirely.
M K Stalin: Hit By Vijay Factor
MK Stalin has not been able to secure a clear path to another term, with the DMK facing a strong challenge from Vijay’s TVK.
The emergence of a new political force has disrupted the state’s traditional political balance, making the contest more competitive.
Pinarayi Vijayan: Anti-Incumbency Weighs In Kerala
Pinarayi Vijayan’s government appears to be losing ground after two consecutive terms.
The LDF is trailing as voters once again lean towards Kerala’s pattern of alternating governments, with issues such as corruption allegations and concentration of power raised during the campaign.
Gaurav Gogoi: Congress Falls Short In Assam
Gaurav Gogoi’s attempt to challenge the BJP in Assam has not translated into gains so far.
Despite taking the fight to the ruling party, the Congress has struggled to match the BJP’s organisational strength. Gogoi has also faced criticism around dynastic politics, and the party remains on the back foot in the state.
AIADMK: Struggles To Stay Relevant
The AIADMK, under Edappadi K Palaniswami, continues to face challenges in the post-Jayalalithaa era.
The party has been hit by internal divisions and is no longer seen as a strong alternative. Despite anti-incumbency against the DMK, it has failed to make gains, with space increasingly being occupied by newer players like TVK.
Opposition Bloc: Setback Continues
The broader opposition is facing another setback. Since the BJP’s reduced tally in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, opposition parties have struggled to convert momentum into electoral gains.
The Congress failed to win Haryana despite anti-incumbency, the MVA could not take Maharashtra from the BJP-Shiv Sena combine, the Aam Aadmi Party lost Delhi in 2025, and the Mahagathbandhan was defeated in Bihar.
Now, with the BJP leading in West Bengal — seen as a key opposition stronghold — the challenge to the NDA appears further weakened, with the opposition still lacking a cohesive strategy.
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