It runs counter to general wisdom to write an epitaph for a political party. They are like the rose of Jericho. Surviving like a dry ball for years in adverse conditions, but blooming the moment there’s moisture. Like the rose of Jericho, can the jora ghas phool (twin grass flowers) survive what now seems to be the worst existential crisis for the Trinamool Congress (TMC)?
The question is being asked all around West Bengal. Will the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC survive these five years to take on the BJP in 2029 Lok Sabha and 2031 Assembly polls? The BJP has emerged as a giant force in the eastern state, and it will only get more powerful hereon. And the TMC is already imploding.
Reports suggested that rebel TMC leaders had met, opposing the party line of Mamata Banerjee and her nephew and National General Secretary, Abhishek Banerjee. On Monday, the TMC suspended two MLAs, Sandipan Saha and Ritabrata Banerjee, for anti-party activities. Senior leader and MLA Kunal Ghosh “appealed with folded hands” to MLAs who were being “misled” into rebellion against the party brass. Mamata herself went on Facebook Live on Monday and admitted that there was a plot to cause a split in the TMC ranks.
This is one of the toughest phases of Mamata Banerjee’s political career. When she launched the TMC in 1998, she was in her early 40s. Now, at 71, she faces the challenge of trying to save and keep control of the party she formed three decades ago. Fifteen of those 30 years, the Trinamool had been in power, making her task easier.
One has to remember that no party that has been thrown out of power in West Bengal in the last 50 years has returned to govern the state. Only the Congress claimed that rare feat, but that was before it was ousted in 1977 by the Left Front.
Then there is the question of ideological commitment to the party. Celebrities, from the acting and the sporting worlds, comprise a big chunk of the TMC leadership. They were given tickets because they attracted voters and won the seats because of the favourable ground situation. It is unlikely that most of them will stick to the TMC, and we are already witnessing that.
It might also have to do with the TMC itself lacking a solid ideology. That makes its leaders rootless, easy to be swept away in a flash flood.
Kolkata-based senior journalist Shikha Mukherjee, recounted in the Netanagri programme of The Lallantop, India Today Digital’s sister outlet, a conversation she had with now-deceased TMC leader Subrata Mukherjee many years ago.
“Before joining the Trinamool Congress, he was a Congress leader and later became one of TMC’s most prominent trade union figures. When I asked him what the Trinamool Congress really was, he replied: ‘It is a tree without roots’,” she said.
Since May 4, the day the Bengal Assembly results were declared, the TMC has been in disarray. With the BJP now holding 208 of the 294 seats, and the TMC just 80, Mamata Banerjee’s grip on the MLAs has come into question.
WHY IS THE TMC SUDDENLY LOOKING SO FRAGILE?
The crisis facing the TMC was revealed on Sunday. Around 60 of the 80 TMC MLAs didn’t turn up for a meeting that was to be chaired by Mamata Banerjee, reported PTI, quoting sources.
TMC spokesperson Kunal Ghosh defended the absence of the MLAs, saying they were busy with protest programmes after the attack on Abhishek Banerjee.
But a meeting did take place as 20 MLAs reached the venue with Mamata holding an “informal discussion” with them. There is intense chatter that Mamata is struggling to keep her flock together. And public anger over corruption, persecution, and the law-and-order situation during the TMC regime might be some of the reasons.
The other big factor is the sidelining of the old guard under Abhishek Banerjee. Several TMC leaders have blamed him for bringing in and empowering the political consultancy outfit I-PAC. They have blamed I-PAC for not just the poll defeat but for alienating the workers and mid-level leadership of the party from the TMC high command.
Crucially, the newly elected MLAs might be unsure of the TMC’s strength to stay afloat and looking for a stronger ship — the BJP. Not many like to be elected, and then sit in the opposition for a full five years.
ARE TMC LEADERS ALREADY LOOKING FOR AN EXIT?
Hordes of TMC leaders, from councillors to MLAs and even an MP have shown signs that they were ready to jump ship.
TMC MP from Barasat, Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar, stepped down from all party posts last week. Ghosh Dastidar, who stood by Mamata Banerjee while she established the TMC in 1998, attended an “administrative meeting” with Bengal CM Suvendu Adhikari. Six TMC MLAs from three districts of Nadia, North 24 Parganas, and Hooghly, were also part of the meeting.
The TMC had 29 Lok Sabha MPs, but the number has come down to 28 after the death of the Basirhat MP, Haji Nurul Islam. Political experts are talking about the resentment among them. A reason behind that could be that the MPs do not see the TMC’s prospects being bright in the 2029 Lok Sabha election.
“Today, dissatisfaction is being expressed openly. Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar is speaking out publicly. Several celebrity MPs, such as Rachna Banerjee, June Malia and Satabdi Roy, are hardly visible. The same applies to a number of MPs, including Cooch Behar’s Jagadish Basunia, Partha Bhowmick from the Kolkata region, and Prasun Banerjee of Howrah, the former captain of the Indian football team,” senior journalist Prasun Acharya told The Lallantop.
Acharya added there were reports that Yusuf Pathan, a former cricketer, might resign as the MP of Baharampur.
“Mamata Banerjee selected candidates based primarily on their ability to win. Many of these people were never deeply connected to the Trinamool Congress ideologically,” said Acharya.
“For such leaders, whether they remain in the Trinamool or move to the BJP does not make much difference ideologically,” he added.
Most of these celebrities and young politicians won because of the TMC tag and Mamata’s brand of politics, before it was tarnished. Most of them didn’t go on to become leaders whose individual strength would help them weather a storm. That is the reason the TMC leaders are betraying a sense of desperation.
Kolkata-based senior journalist Shikha Mukherjee said the feeling among the TMC leaders is that the party is no longer strong. “As a result, they believe they need to start looking after their own political futures,” she said.
DOES THE BJP EVEN WANT TMC TURNCOATS?
The BJP, however, might be wary of including TMC turncoats. While it doesn’t make sense for it to accommodate TMC MLAs, the party’s MPs might add to its strength in the Lok Sabha. But there is the old guard vs new guard battle, it might be wary of.
The TMC itself has been a victim of that battle, and the BJP wouldn’t like to import that problem. The BJP did get a taste of that in 2021, though. One of the reasons attributed to its below-expected performance is the fielding of TMC turncoats. Voters perceived these candidates as a continuation of the TMC rot, which went on to hurt the BJP’s prospects.
Shikha Mukherjee said that there have also been reports that some TMC leaders were exploring options with the Congress. But there has been no clear signal to them either from the BJP or the Congress.
“What is missing, however, is any visible sign that the BJP is actively encouraging these leaders to join. There is no clear indication of negotiations that would suggest a major split is imminent,” she added.
Amid this, reports emerged on Monday that some rebel TMC MLAs had met at a five-star hotel against the Mamata-Abhishek party line, and discussed an alternative.
HOW BIG IS THE TMC EXODUS?
The dissonance within the TMC is for real. In her Facebook Live address on Monday, Mamata Banerjee admitted to the rebellion, alleging that some TMC leaders were more interested in protecting their interests. She also alleged a plot to cause a split in the TMC.
“TMC MLAs are being threatened through police pressure and instructed to establish contact with specific individuals,” she alleged.
Apart from the around 60 MLAs who abstained from the meeting convened by Mamata, the party has been witnessing en-bloc resignations. Over 100 councillors from seven civic bodies have resigned from the TMC, according to a May 26 PTI report.
Several prominent TMC faces, including Ghosh Dastidar, former Rajya Sabha MP Santanu Sen, and senior spokesperson Arup Chakraborty, resigned from party posts, while former cricketer-turned-politician Manoj Tiwary, filmmaker and former MLA Raj Chakraborty, and former Assam unit chief Abhijit Majumdar quit the party altogether.
Even after the attack on Abhishek Banerjee in Sonapur on Saturday, not many TMC leaders have come out to condemn the incident.
Mamata Banerjee, in the Facebook Live, said the TMC wasn’t being permitted by the Bengal administration to hold public rallies. “The more you try to break the TMC, the more it will emerge stronger,” said Mamata on Monday. “The TMC isn’t a leader-based but a worker-based party. Leaders get scared, workers don’t. I will rebuild the party as long as Trinamool workers are with me,” she added.
The politicians know that the result of the 2026 Assembly election reflects the anger against the TMC and that it might be difficult for the party to regroup and bounce back in 2031.
In the last 50 years, Bengal voters have kept parties in power for an extended period, and then made them politically irrelevant in the state. From the Congress to the CPI(M), parties have witnessed that. Will the TMC face the same fate too?
IS TMC SLIPPING OUT OF MAMATA BANERJEE’S CONTROL?
Then there is the question of a worst-case scenario of a TMC without Mamata and Abhishek Banerjee. Like with Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar, is there a possibility of feuding TMC leaders grabbing the party from Mamata, who founded it? Though there seems to be no alternative leader right now, nothing can be discounted in politics.
That Mamata was struggling to keep the MLAs together was revealed when the TMC on Monday suspended Sandipan Saha and Ritabrata Banerjee for anti-party activities.
Mamata’s longtime aide and senior TMC leader Kunal Ghosh came out with an appeal for party MLAs.
“I would request our MLAs with folded hands. We have not come here by winning elections on our own. We have come here because of the Trinamool Congress. Mamata Banerjee’s picture was being used, and we have come by receiving the votes that Mamata Banerjee earned. If we had that strength ourselves, we would have won the elections on our own,” Ghosh was heard in a video clip shared by Sangbad Pratidin, a Kolkata-based Bangla news outlet.
Politics in Bengal has for decades depended on projection of power and strength on the ground. The BJP successfully projected power ahead of the polls, and the crackdown on the TMC-linked goons by the Suvendu Adhikari government is a continuation of that. It successfully built an organisational presence with the help of the BJP’s central leadership, and the stint in power will help it strengthen that. The BJP will only grow in Bengal in the years ahead.
While the TMC might not fold up, Mamata Banerjee has a daunting task at hand to prevent an exodus from the party.
Keeping control of the TMC and rebuilding the party machinery won’t be an easy task. What is the TMC’s weakness is also its strength. Mamata Banerjee has come to define the TMC. She is its lifeblood. As long as she retains the will to fight, the party has a fighting chance. However, Mamata and her TMC face a BJP juggernaut, and an internal challenge at the same time. There’s a test of survival before the 2029 Lok Sabha and the 2031 Assembly polls. The TMC might be able to withstand the post-poll storm, but what the political cost it has to pay remains to be seen.
– Ends
