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The expected leadership transition in Karnataka—from Siddaramaiah to Shivakumar—could become the third major strategic intervention personally backed by Rahul Gandhi within a month
Inside the Congress, some leaders privately describe it as Rahul Gandhi ‘trusting his instincts more than before’.
File pic/PTI
For years, critics within and outside the Congress questioned whether Rahul Gandhi had the instinct—and the authority—to take hard political calls that could upset entrenched interests inside the party. But over the last few weeks, the Congress leader appears to have done exactly that.
From Tamil Nadu to Kerala and now Karnataka, Rahul Gandhi is increasingly seen within party circles as more assertive, pragmatic, and far more willing to override senior leaders if he believes it helps the Congress politically.
The expected leadership transition in Karnataka—with Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar likely to eventually replace Chief Minister Siddaramaiah—could become the third major strategic intervention personally backed by Rahul Gandhi within a month.
The larger message is unmistakable: the Congress leadership does not want to loosen its grip over southern India, currently the party’s strongest political zone.
The Congress is today in power in four of the five southern states either directly or through alliances, making the region the party’s principal national counterweight against the BJP. Protecting that dominance ahead of the 2028 Karnataka elections and future Lok Sabha battles has become central to Rahul Gandhi’s political calculations.
The first signal came in Tamil Nadu.
According to party insiders, Rahul Gandhi’s political instinct before the assembly polls was to explore an understanding with actor-politician Vijay rather than remain entirely dependent on the DMK-led alliance. Several senior Congress leaders were initially uncomfortable with the idea, arguing that distancing from the DMK could be risky. But Rahul reportedly believed that Vijay’s entry had altered Tamil Nadu’s political arithmetic and that the Congress needed to adapt early instead of reacting late. The decision from Rahul finally came after the elections and Vijay getting a big mandate.
The second decision emerged in Kerala, where the leadership tilted decisively towards senior Congress leader VD Satheesan as the party’s future chief ministerial face over veteran leader KC Venugopal. The move is being interpreted as a generational and organisational choice—one that prioritises aggressive state-level politics and local leadership over Delhi-centric power equations. This was despite a lesser number of MLAs backing Satheesan, but Rahul Gandhi prevailed.
Now comes Karnataka.
The impending transition from Siddaramaiah to DK Shivakumar is viewed inside the Congress as both a political balancing act and a long-term electoral calculation. While Siddaramaiah remains a mass leader with strong AHINDA backing, the leadership is also conscious of anti-incumbency risks more than midway through the government’s term.
Party strategists believe a leadership refresh before the 2028 Assembly polls could help blunt fatigue against the government and energise the cadre. DK Shivakumar, with his organisational grip and fundraising ability, is seen as crucial to the Congress’s efforts to retain Karnataka—the BJP’s most important southern battleground.
It is also about Rahul Gandhi’s word to DK Shivakumar in 2023—that he would become CM after two and a half years. It had to be honoured, albeit six months late.
Taken together, the three moves reflect a noticeable shift in Rahul Gandhi’s political style. Instead of merely balancing factions, he now appears increasingly willing to reshape state leadership structures around winnability and long-term strategy.
Inside the Congress, some leaders privately describe it as Rahul Gandhi “trusting his instincts more than before”.
And for a party trying to hold its southern fortress amid a difficult national landscape, that instinct may end up defining the Congress’s next political phase.
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