On July 2, Rajendra Pal Gautam, the newly appointed All India Congress Committee (AICC) in-charge for Uttar Pradesh, declared that the party would go into the upcoming Assembly election with “equality and respect”.
The remark by Gautam at his first press conference soon after the appointment added to speculation that the Congress is bargaining hard with the Samajwadi Party (SP) and is in no mood to be defensive when it comes to discussing seat-sharing arrangements for the 2027 State election. This is despite the Congress sparring with current allies in Jharkhand such as the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), and the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation, or CPI (M-L)L, and past allies such as the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu.
The SP and the Congress contested the 2022 Assembly election separately after their alliance for the 2017 election on the plank of “UP ke do ladke” (Uttar Pradesh’s two boys, in an obvious reference to Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and SP leader Akhilesh Yadav) failed badly. In 2017, the Congress was allotted 106 of the State’s 403 Assembly seats as part of the alliance agreement and won only 7 seats. In 2022, when it fought alone, it could win only 2 seats. However, the 2024 Lok Sabha election outcome in the State, where the two parties together won 43 of the 80 seats, changed the perception about how formidable the alliance was.
The SP won 37 seats and the Congress 6. It was the Congress’ best performance since 2009, when it bagged 21 seats. The Congress claims that although it only won 6 seats, its strike rate was good because it was allotted only 17 seats. In both the 2017 Assembly election and the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the Congress was allotted less than 25 per cent of the total seats contested by the alliance.
The BJP, which was shell-shocked after being confined to just 33 seats—it won 71 and 62 seats in 2014 and 2019, respectively—was left searching for answers to explain its sudden slide, including the loss of the Faizabad seat (where Ayodhya is located) to the SP.
SP-Congress alliance
There is a view that the Congress-SP alliance is now working effectively as there is greater uniformity of views between the two parties on issues concerning Other Backward Classes and Dalits, with both Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav pursuing similar social policies. Hence, many observers believe the alliance could make a difference in the 2027 Assembly election. So, when Gautam ratcheted up the party’s demand, saying that the Congress would defeat the BJP in the upcoming election and ensure that Rahul Gandhi becomes Prime Minister in 2029, many wondered if his party was contemplating going it alone in the State or whether this was just bluster.
Earlier, senior SP leader and Rajya Sabha MP Ramji Lal Suman had reacted sharply to such remarks by Congress leaders, saying that they should refrain from making such statements and that Congress leaders should also weigh their strength and understand the ground reality before making such tall claims.
Cautioning that such statements could spoil the atmosphere and hamper the relationship between the SP and the Congress, Suman requested Rahul Gandhi to intervene and instruct State leaders of his party to refrain from making such statements. “We will fight this election together, but not on the terms dictated by a party that has lost its footing in this State,” he said.
The SP believes the Congress should not lose sight of the larger goal of defeating the BJP in Uttar Pradesh and should closely examine which party is best positioned to defeat the ruling party in each seat. SP leaders argue that this is the time for “jeet [victory] and not seat” and have advised the Congress, in no uncertain terms, that winning is more important than contesting.
The SP, which has been out of power in the State for the past 10 years, is looking to return to power by banking on its Pichhda-Dalit-Alpsankhyak platform to defeat the Adityanath-led BJP government, while Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), out of power for the last two decades, looks to be in decline.
But a Congress-BSP alliance could change the game by consolidating the votes of Dalits, Muslims, and Brahmins. Gautam’s praise for BSP chief Mayawati sparked speculation about whether the Congress was keeping its cards close to its chest. The Congress had also reached out to Mayawati in the past for a grand alliance, including in 2024. The SP had an alliance with the BSP in 2019, but after the election, in which both were routed, there was a bitter fallout.
A Congress leader, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that the seat-sharing issue in Uttar Pradesh would be resolved soon. He pointed out that last year, in the run-up to the Bihar Assembly election, there was sparring between Congress and RJD leaders during seat-sharing talks, which was eventually resolved, and the INDIA coalition partners contested together.
Rajendra Pal Gautam, the new Congress Uttar Pradesh in-charge, addressing a press conference in Lucknow on July 2.
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SANDEEP SAXENA
Congress’ place in opposition space
When Gautam went to the extent of saying that the INDIA bloc won more seats in 2024 because the Congress secured 99 seats, and the grand old party alone could defeat the BJP as “regional parties no longer have the capacity” to take on the saffron party, it appeared to be a calibrated move by the Congress to position itself as the principal opposition party and shore up support among voters opposed to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), especially the minorities, and convince them to accord first preference to the Congress.
Gautam’s remarks come amid deep disruptions in regional parties like the Trinamool Congress, the Nationalist Congress Party, and the Shiv Sena, and seem to be part of the Congress’ strategy to claim leadership position in the opposition space.
The question remains whether the Congress is now pushing the narrative that those keen on stopping the BJP from coming to power should not rally behind regional parties.
Amid rumours that JMM-ruled Jharkhand could be another State where the BJP could create divisions in the INDIA bloc, the Congress has been on the offensive for quite some time. Not only did it unilaterally announce the name of its Rajya Sabha candidate, Pranav Jha, without taking the JMM into its confidence, it also hit out at the RJD and the CPI(M-L)L after Jha lost the election despite the INDIA bloc having the numbers. The CPI(M-L) later strongly countered the charge that its MLAs voted for the BJP-backed independent candidate, while the JMM asked the Congress to look within.
The allies reminded the Congress that its MLAs had previously cross-voted in Bihar, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, and Odisha, leading to the victory of a BJP or BJP-backed candidate in Rajya Sabha elections.
Former Congress spokesperson Sanjay Jha earlier wrote an open letter to party president Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi saying that the question was no longer whether the country seeks a credible opposition but whether the INDIA bloc was prepared to become one.
“The alliance must learn from its mistakes. The loss of Nitish Kumar to the NDA before the 2024 Lok Sabha election was not merely a setback. It was a strategic blunder. It was a failure of alliance management, foresight, and political accommodation,” he said, adding that Congress should not behave like an “insecure elder sibling”.
However, Kishore Kumar Jha, a Pradesh Congress Committee delegate from Bihar, told Frontline that for any meaningful political alternative to the BJP, the Congress was key. He said: “Owing to its legacy, people still view the party with respect and hope. It continues to enjoy a pan-India presence that no regional party possesses. As a national party, the Congress must be bold in confronting not only the BJP but also opportunistic allies.”
He added: “The approach of regional parties needs to be checked through more assertive politics, aimed at making deeper inroads, with or without allies.”
He had reportedly made the “go it alone” pitch for the party in multiple letters to Congress leaders Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi in the past.
Uttar Pradesh Congress workers take part in a march in protest against the theft of donations to the Ayodhya Ram temple, in Lucknow on July 7.
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NAEEM ANSARI/ANI
Those supporting this option have told the leadership that regional parties do not want the Congress to succeed and that they align with it only to pursue their own interests, and have parted ways when it suited them, as the SP did during the 2022 Uttar Pradesh election. Moreover, parties such as the RJD, the SP, the JMM, and the DMK have often fielded candidates against the Congress, even in States where they have limited influence. The DMK did not attend the INDIA bloc meeting held on June 8. At the meeting, Left parties openly criticised the Congress over Rahul Gandhi’s remarks about former Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, and the SP and the RJD asked the Congress to be more accommodating towards allies.
The saving grace was Mamata Banerjee, who, in the past, had skipped the meeting and sent her representative instead. This time, she was present throughout, confabulating with and hugging Sonia Gandhi and asking the Congress to take the lead for opposition unity, a departure from her party’s past stand of questioning Rahul Gandhi’s leadership. This leaves the Congress with a delicate balancing act: while it would want to keep its principal opposition party status intact, it should not push the envelope so far that regional parties dump the alliance as there are States where it cannot make much of a difference on its own, including Uttar Pradesh.
It seems that amid its conflicting needs to retain allies’ support while reviving its fortunes, the Congress will have to walk a tightrope in Uttar Pradesh for the time being.
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