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Vote Vibe opinion poll predicts saffron surge in 2 of 3 bypoll seats: Gujarat’s Manjalpur, Bihar’s Bankipur & MP’s Datia will vote on July 30; results to be announced on August 3
The BJP is projected to win two of the three seats going for bypolls.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may retain Bihar’s Bankipur and Gujarat’s Manjalpur, while Datia in Madhya Pradesh will see a close contest with the Congress as the three Assembly seats go for bypolls on July 30, according to the Vote Vibe opinion poll.
The results will be announced on August 3.
BANKIPUR (BIHAR) OPINION POLL: BJP IN THE LEAD; RJD, JAN SURAAJ FIGHT IT OUT
The seat was vacated following the resignation of five-term BJP MLA and party president Nitin Nabin after his election to the Rajya Sabha.
According to Vote Vibe, the BJP may lead here with 44.9%, well ahead of Jan Suraaj (33.8%) and RJD (17.8%). The BJP’s lead over Jan Suraaj is about 11 points.
The BJP is predicted to perform much better among women (52.5%) than men (40.8%). Jan Suraaj is the mirror image: stronger among men (37.9%) than women (26.1%). This suggests the BJP’s overall lead is being driven disproportionately by female voters, while Jan Suraaj’s second-place position relies more on male voters.
The BJP’s vote share is lowest among those aged 26-35 (39.3%) and highest among those aged 51-60 (50.2%) — a fairly clear age gradient, stronger with older voters. Jan Suraaj shows the opposite trend: strongest among those aged 26-35 and weakest among those aged 60+.
Poll prediction: The BJP is currently ahead, benefiting from a split between JSP and RJD. For Jan Suraaj to win, it needs a complete collapse of the RJD vote as well as a big dent in the BJP’s upper-caste vote. The main vote base of the RJD — Yadavs — sees this as an existential crisis for the party, while Muslims tend to think along the lines of voting for the party that is best suited to defeat the BJP.
MANJALPUR (GUJARAT) OPINION POLL: BJP IN THE LEAD; CONGRESS, AAP TO FIGHT FOR 2ND SPOT
The bypoll was necessitated as the seat was vacated following the demise of the sitting BJP MLA Yogeshbhai Narandas Patel.
The BJP holds a commanding 68% vote share versus Congress’s 9.5% and Aam Aadmi Party’s 6.3% — a 58-point lead that undecided voters (13.7%) cannot realistically close, according to the opinion poll.
The real contest is for a distant second place between the Congress and AAP.
The BJP retains 87.1% of its 2022 voters — a near-fortress position.
Women back the BJP more strongly than men — 71.7% vs 64.4%. The AAP is almost invisible among women (1.0%) but has real traction among men (11.4%). The female undecided bloc (17.7%) is nearly double the male bloc (9.9%) — the last genuinely persuadable segment.
The AAP’s support is concentrated almost entirely among those aged 18-30 (15.4%) and evaporates past the age of 45. The BJP is strongest among those aged 60+ (78.7%), the group most likely to actually turn out given low bypoll awareness (54.9% unaware), according to the opinion poll. This age skew favours the BJP structurally, as older/high-propensity voters lean hardest towards it.
Poll prediction: The BJP’s lead may be structurally broad-based across gender, age, community and occupation, rather than resting on one bloc. Low bypoll salience means turnout mobilisation — not persuasion — will decide the final margin, according to Vote Vibe.
DATIA (MP) OPINION POLL: CLOSE CONTEST BETWEEN BJP AND CONGRESS
The Datia seat was vacated due to the disqualification of Congress MLA Rajendra Bharti following his conviction in a fraud case.
According to Vote Vibe, the constituency will see a tight race, with the BJP projected to be ahead of the Congress by just 2.6 points (48.1% vs 45.5%). This is a genuine toss-up, within the margin of error. Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) (ASP) (3.0%) and Others (3.3%) are marginal players who could matter if the BJP-Congress gap stays this narrow.
The BJP’s entire lead comes from women: 59.4% among female voters vs just 44.6% among men. Among men, the Congress actually leads the BJP (48.4% vs 44.6%). Among women, the BJP dominates the Congress by 23.3 points (59.4% vs 36.1%). ASP and Others also skew slightly more toward men than women.
Support for the Congress is strongest among young voters: it wins the 18-35 age group outright, 55.3% vs the BJP’s 36.9%. The lines cross around the 36-50 age group, where it’s nearly even (47.9% BJP vs 45.9% INC). The BJP pulls progressively ahead with age, winning among those aged 51-60 (49.2% vs 43.2%) and dominating those aged 60+ (58.5% vs 37.3%). ASP’s support is concentrated in younger/middle-aged cohorts and nearly vanishes among those aged 60+ (0.7%).
Poll prediction: This looks like a genuine “coalition math” seat. The BJP’s path to victory runs through older women, while the Congress’s runs through younger men. The turnout composition will likely decide this one; if young/male turnout is high relative to older/female turnout, the Congress has a real shot; otherwise, the BJP has an edge among women. Ultimately, it could boil down to the last 2-3 days and whether Narottam Mishra genuinely supports or indirectly sabotages the party’s prospects.
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